Friday, November 15, 2013
About Me
- Name: Shira Salamone
Once upon a time, I belonged to a left-wing egalitarian Conservative synagogue, where I was one of a number of women who wore a tallit—and one of the few members who used an Orthodox prayer book (adding the Mothers, of course). Having moved since then, I now belong to a right-wing traditional Conservative synagogue, where I’m almost always the only woman wearing a tallit—and one of the few members who adds the Mothers. I seem destined to be forever . . . on the fringe.
PUBLIC SERVICE POSTS
- Park your ego at the door: Links to my series "On raising a child with disabilities"
- Parenting 101
- Febrile seizures: Life-saving information
Previous Posts
- Parashat Vayishlach, 5774/2013 edition
- An accidental vegan (kinda) :)
- Pineapple upside-down, er, non-cake :)
- Post round-up, Mon., Nov. 4-Thurs., Nov. 7, 2013
- Close encounter of an unusual kind
- Parashat Vayetze, 5774/2013 edition
- A new addition to my gluten-free food sources
- Cell-phone sickness, part 2: Reaching new heights...
- Cell-phone sickness
- Off to a rough start on Rosh Chodesh—& off of dairy
MY BLOGROLL
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26 Comments:
Bullshit.
It's birthrates, pure and simple.
Orthodox Retention is HORRIBLE. Historically 50%… recently it looks closer to 70%, but it's unclear if that bump is an improvement in education, or being trapped.
Most of the young "on the fence" FFB (Frum From Birth) Orthodox Jews I know survive on a tremendous amount of parental support. Downpayments on homes, Yeshiva tuition, etc. These aren't Hareidi families, these are dual income, college educated, professional families.
The recent economic downturn that resulted in secular 20-somethings living with their parents has resulted in Orthodox 20-somethings living off their parents. I see the grandparents downsizing their homes to put down payments for their children, then paying for tuition.
So the current 20-somethings aren't committed, it's just a delayed reaction.
And DESPITE that, Orthodoxy has seen ZERO growth from 10% of the population in EVERY study.
Orthodoxy survives because while it loses half it's youth, they have double the children, so it works out.
Reform only survives BECAUSE Intermarriage makes them the only game in town… if you aren't really interested in being Jewish, going to the Reform Temple occasionally lets you do something Jewish for your kids while your Protestant spouse doesn't object.
There are absolutely plenty of dedicated Reform Jews. But the growth rate is entirely at the expense of Conservative Judaism from intermarriage.
Egaltarianism/Secularism produces lower birthrates in EVERY culture on EVERY continent.
Orthodoxy isn't retaining better, it's simply producing more. The less observant families in the Orthodox Shul and the more observant families in the Conservative Shul in our neighborhood are pretty indistinguishable, except they live a few blocks apart and the Conservative ones drive to the Conservative Shul a mile a way, and the Orthodox ones walk to the Orthodox Shul a few blocks away.
There is a LOT wrong with every movement… Orthodoxy is able to tread water by having double the birth rate.
There is some truth to the idea that people came back from Jewish Summer Camp enthused with religion and finding nothing at home (I'm one of a handful of Reform Jews that went to Conservative summer camp), and ended up in the Orthodox World.
It's a big chunk of current Orthodox Jews just because Orthodoxy is so tiny compared to the rest… 4% of historical Conservative Jewry (a movement 4x-5x large than Orthodoxy) is something like 20% of the Orthodox community.
There are plenty of families that are semi-Shomer Shabbat (walk to Shul, publicly observant, might work from home Saturday afternoon, no Shabbat on Vacation), Kosher home, Kosher style or whatever outside, etc.
Those families would have been at home in the Conservative Movement a generation ago… But since the Conservative Movement has become so liberal, that a traditionalist Jew in a heterosexual marriage whose politics range from conservative to moderate liberal end up in Orthodoxy, because they are comfortable there.
That leads to crappy Conservative Birthrates, which is the problem. 50% retention is FINE if you produce 4 children/woman and get a small boost from other movements. At 2/woman, a 90% retention rate wouldn't maintain the movement. It's ALL in the birth rates.
And to bring it back to your blog, let me tell you HOW different it is for children with disabilities.
We have them in all movements. Your effort to keep your child integrated was a mess, and certainly made parenting miserable. You weren't integrated, you were cast out, and didn't have more children.
Social norms in Orthodoxy don't result in the end of childbearing upon having a child with disabilities. You get the resources you need from the government, everyone tells you how special you are, and you are encouraged to keep having children.
It's night and day.
Miami Al, you're a first-class cynic.
That said, you may have a point. Larger numbers of children can certainly help compensate for attrition.
As to raising a child with disabilities and delays within the Conservative Movement, it never occurred to me that our experience might have been different in another denomination. I always assumed that the problem was that neither set of grandparents lived within commuting distance and my only sibling who did was not interested in being a surrogate parent in any way--she wouldn't even babysit until our son was out of diapers, and even then, only once a year on our anniversary. (My husband's only sibling and spouse were not within commuting distance and were raising a disabled child of their own.) Would we have gotten more community support in an *Orthodox* shul when our son ran around the sanctuary making a commotion and I took him out to the lobby because that seemed to be the considerate thing to do? Do you truly think that *Orthodox* co-congregants wouldn't have criticized me for not staying home with my kid until he was old enough and/or able to stay seated and keep quiet? Now it's *my* turn to be a cynic.
Do you truly think that Orthodox co-congregants wouldn't have reacted the same way?
Al, I think you're overstating the Ortho exodus. I think the 70-80% retention at this point is pretty accurate, and I don't think it's because people are moving back with their parents (a phenomenon that isn't happening in our community). It's certainly higher than 50%.
And Shira, yes. We have numerous special needs kids in our community, including Downs, autism spectrum, etc. The kid with Downs is an active member of our youth minyan. A girl with autism like behaviors is in shul all the time. Yes, her dad takes her out when she becomes disruptive, but that doesn't mean she sits quietly and meekly the rest of the time.
I can't speak for all orthodox shuls, and there is almost certainly a spectrum, but I've seen a very welcoming community in mine. Not to mention, we have a number of kids who have left the local ortho school to go to private schools or public schools to help deal with learning disabilities and they are still valuable members of our community.
Anon., thanks for the "report." Larry Lennhoff has a different opinion, though, as he expressed in a comment to this post: “I know numerous women who feel that they can almost never get to shul because of childcare issues. I've personally observed that the Orthodox community is immensely supportive as long as you have an 'approved problem' - death of a family member, recognized illness such as cancer, etc., while being unwilling to support people with other sorts of problems (children going OTD, single/divorced mothers, special needs children who have to go to public school, etc.).”
I'm not convinced that our problems integrating our son into the Jewish community occurred because we were members of a Conservative synagogue rather than an Orthodox one.
As to whether the Ortho exodus is overstated, I guess it depends on whose statistics you believe. :) But that doesn't help us Conservs any--we're still bleeding members.
Your confusing Conservative Jews, albeit an inherently small number, with members of Conservative shuls. They are not interchangeable. The decline in shul membership is not a bad thing for Conservative judaism in the long run, but a large number of shuls will no longer be able to justify their existance.
Anonymous...
Surveys in the Jewish Population in the 70s showed about 10% Orthodox.
The 1990 Jewish Population Study showed about 10% Orthodox, "poised for HUGE gains" because of the high percentage of Orthodox youth.
The 2000 studies shows about 10% Orthodox, "poised for HUGE gains" because of the high percentage of Orthodox youth.
So now we have a 2012/2013 study, which shows about 10% Orthodox, "poised for HUGE gains" because of the high percentage of Orthodox youth.
If retention had been improving, as Pew implies, then we would have seen some of those gains. Since 1990, the percentage of Jewish youth in Orthodox has increased, which no corresponding increase amongst adults.
I don't see moving back with their parents (that's what happens on the secular side), I see moving to a home paid for by their parents, and that payment comes with the implied string of being Frum.
So I think that SOME of the "higher retention in the 20-something" crowd than the 30-something crowd is parental support, which may result in an exodus when that support dries up, or the children being outwardly Frum and inwardly Frei, so we may get a massive decrease in the next generation.
Not sure, maybe Orthodox has increased retention from the historic 50% to current 70%, which helps... but birth rates matter too. The "day school crisis" seems to be showing a decline in birth rates of nearly 1 child/woman.
4 children X 50% Retention = 2 Frum Offspring
3 Children X 70% Retention = 2.1 Frum Offspring
In contrast, the Conservative problem isn't retention... It's birth rates doom it. In 2000 it was 1.74/woman..., replacement level is 2.1.
To maintain it's population, Conservative Judaism needs a retention rate of 121%, which is impossible... Hence the Conservative embrace of Inter-marraige...
But Conservatives have two problems, they were bolstered (see the to by comments on that article) by European immigrants. They might not have wanted to be Frum (and might or might not have been in Europe), but Conservative Shuls reminded them of their old country, with a sentimental attachment. Reform's Lutheran style left them cold, Orthodoxy was too rigid for many, so Conservative got a HUGE generation... but they never had a program that retained children, but they just didn't see it because of the baby boom.
Also, large numbers of children of immigrants went to Orthodox Schools, but grew up American, so ended up in Conservative with Orthodox Liturgy and American Values. Their children don't have that attachment to Orthodox Liturgy (lacking that school), so go Reform or out.
Guess what, even with a 50% retention, which conservative should be able to muster, they'd be fine at 4 births/woman. At < 2, they are dead, no matter how many they retain.
Orthodox Schools spewing venom at non-Orthodox Judaism don't help... disinterested FFB youth become secular or OTD/anti-religion, they don't join Conservative Synagogues... that's a change from 2 generations ago.
Anonymous...
Surveys in the Jewish Population in the 70s showed about 10% Orthodox.
The 1990 Jewish Population Study showed about 10% Orthodox, "poised for HUGE gains" because of the high percentage of Orthodox youth.
The 2000 studies shows about 10% Orthodox, "poised for HUGE gains" because of the high percentage of Orthodox youth.
So now we have a 2012/2013 study, which shows about 10% Orthodox, "poised for HUGE gains" because of the high percentage of Orthodox youth.
If retention had been improving, as Pew implies, then we would have seen some of those gains. Since 1990, the percentage of Jewish youth in Orthodox has increased, which no corresponding increase amongst adults.
I don't see moving back with their parents (that's what happens on the secular side), I see moving to a home paid for by their parents, and that payment comes with the implied string of being Frum.
So I think that SOME of the "higher retention in the 20-something" crowd than the 30-something crowd is parental support, which may result in an exodus when that support dries up, or the children being outwardly Frum and inwardly Frei, so we may get a massive decrease in the next generation.
Not sure, maybe Orthodox has increased retention from the historic 50% to current 70%, which helps... but birth rates matter too. The "day school crisis" seems to be showing a decline in birth rates of nearly 1 child/woman.
4 children X 50% Retention = 2 Frum Offspring
3 Children X 70% Retention = 2.1 Frum Offspring
In contrast, the Conservative problem isn't retention... It's birth rates doom it. In 2000 it was 1.74/woman..., replacement level is 2.1.
To maintain it's population, Conservative Judaism needs a retention rate of 121%, which is impossible... Hence the Conservative embrace of Inter-marraige...
But Conservatives have two problems, they were bolstered (see the to by comments on that article) by European immigrants. They might not have wanted to be Frum (and might or might not have been in Europe), but Conservative Shuls reminded them of their old country, with a sentimental attachment. Reform's Lutheran style left them cold, Orthodoxy was too rigid for many, so Conservative got a HUGE generation... but they never had a program that retained children, but they just didn't see it because of the baby boom.
Also, large numbers of children of immigrants went to Orthodox Schools, but grew up American, so ended up in Conservative with Orthodox Liturgy and American Values. Their children don't have that attachment to Orthodox Liturgy (lacking that school), so go Reform or out.
Guess what, even with a 50% retention, which conservative should be able to muster, they'd be fine at 4 births/woman. At < 2, they are dead, no matter how many they retain.
Orthodox Schools spewing venom at non-Orthodox Judaism don't help... disinterested FFB youth become secular or OTD/anti-religion, they don't join Conservative Synagogues... that's a change from 2 generations ago.
Shira,
Take off the Conservative Lens for a second.
Conservative Shira took her son to Shul, was told to take him home until he could behave (Conservative Shuls always seemed the least child friendly to me, Reform Temples are children-zones, Orthodox places are child friendly, Conservative places seem to be about old people reliving their childhood religion with no place for youth). Conservative Shira was not welcome in Shul, so wasn't a part of things. She went to Sunday minyan and was rudely send home. In every manner, Conservative Shira was told that she could be Jewish when her son could behave. Conservative Shira never has another child, but becomes very observant after he moves out of the house and she can be.
Orthodox Shira MIGHT have been able to take her son to Shul, she might not have, depends on the Shul. But for Orthodox Shira, it doesn't matter. Her husband comes home from Shul, they gather up their son, and head to a family for dinner/lunch, or husband returns from shul with their guests for dinner/lunch.
Orthodox Shira might take her son to the park to play with other boys his age that don't sit still in Shul, and Orthodox Shira would be a part of the community that way, with her husband meeting them at the park.
Orthodox Shira might have found a woman's Shiur she enjoys while her son is in school, and had a community that way.
Either way, while Orthodox Shira might not have attended Shul (or she might have), Orthodox Shira through her son would be integrated in the community.
Orthodox Shira finds that as a mother, her son, even with special needs, makes her more a part of the community, while Conservative Shira found that her son kept her away from the community.
With that experience, Orthodox Shira is far more likely to have another child.
No clue if Orthodox Shira becomes very Frum as kids move out (because now she can attend Shiurim/Shul all the time), or very Frei because she wasn't in Shul for a while, and lost interest in the religion.
So Orthodox Shira might be less interested in Judaism than Conservative Shira is at your age... but she's FAR more likely to have had more children to further integrate herself in the Orthodox community.
So Conservative Judaism might have been terrific for Shira, but it's social mores resulted in Shira only producing 1 child, and not 2-4.
And that is FAR more significant to denominational marketshare than Ramah graduates wanting a spiritual Kiddush.
BTW, "Would we have gotten more community support in an *Orthodox* shul when our son ran around the sanctuary making a commotion and I took him out to the lobby because that seemed to be the considerate thing to do? Do you truly think that *Orthodox* co-congregants wouldn't have criticized me for not staying home with my kid until he was old enough and/or able to stay seated and keep quiet?"
Yes.
When you took your son out, it would have been fine. Nobody would treat you like you weren't a serious Jew because you took your son out. There would be no implication that you weren't fulfilling your role by not being in the Minyan.
I know a few moms that spend most of the service in the kids room playing with their kids and toys and chatting with the other moms, then they come out for Kiddush.
They may not say a single prayer with the congregation, but nobody asks them why they don't stay home until their kid is older, they ask them how the week has been.
Orthodoxy's lack of communal prayer responsibilities for women is at the core of the difference. Women do what they want in terms of Shul behavior, and nobody pays attention. The service is on the other side of the mechitza, none of the men worrying, and the other women also may have kids.
Sexist and anti-feminist? Absolutely.
Pro-maternity? Absolutely.
Also, fun with math...
Baal Teshuvahs LARGELY come from Conservative Jews. Given that the prior generation Conservative was larger, and 4% went Orthodox (vs. 1% of Reform), it's probably about 8:1 Conservative:Reform.
Okay, 26% of Orthodox Jews grew up in another denomination, we'll allocate that 23% Conservative, 3% Reform...
Pundits scream, OH NOW, we LOST our best and brightest, if only we retained them, all would be better...
Okay, so 23% of Orthodox Jews are Conservative. Pretend Conservative saved ALL of them... that 23% of Orthodox Jews are 23% of 10% of the population, or 2.3% of the Jewish population.
1971, 41% Conservative
1990, 38% Conservative
2000, 26% Conservative
2013, 18% (actual), 20.3% (fantasy)
Does changing the 2013 number from 18% to 20.3% make the decline less pronounced?
Of course not.
That 2.3% of American Jews wouldn't save Conservative Marketshare, but it would be more congregants that Jewish Clergy like to hand out with... :)
Conservative failed to convince their members/youth to: procreate and have more Jews, those that did procreate, failed to convince them to marry Jews, and amongst those that did marry Jews, it failed to convince them to stay Conservtive.
It's like 8:1 of the ones that went Reform/Secular vs. Orthodox, but that Orthodox group was the ones that they'd like, so we'll call them their "prized members."
I think the math is pretty consistent:
1. Conservative Jews fail to reproduce.
2. Reform Jews fail to reproduce, but they are growing from the ranks of Conservative Jews defecting and intermarried dual Church/Temple affiliation
3. Orthodox Jews reproduce quite well. Retention is suspect, but they have a larger base to start with so it works out.
Orthodox retention is improving (credited to Yeshiva), but Orthodox birth rate is declining (blamed on Yeshiva), so Orthodoxy is treading water.
But since the Super Jew you know from your Conservative Synagogue is now at a Young Israel, you thin that Orthodoxy is exploding... yed for 40+ years, every survey pegs Orthodoxy at 10% "but poised for huge growth" soon.
I daven Orthodox, but the triumphalism of Orthodoxy as the future of Judaism would seem more sincere if they EVER exceeded 10% of the Jewish population.
Oh, and despite birth rates, Orthodoxy is treading water, and 74% of Orthodox Jews grew up Orthodox (26% are BTs)... So Orthodoxy isn't growing, it's treading water because of BTs from the much larger movements... please tell me how the decline of Conservative Judaism is good for Orthodoxy? Seems to me that the ranks of Jews to recruit BTs from is about half what it was 40 years ago... Cut that 26% to 13%, and Orthodoxy has decline from 10% to 9%, hardly the future of Judaism.
"Orthodox Shira finds that as a mother, her son, even with special needs, makes her more a part of the community, while Conservative Shira found that her son kept her away from the community."
You may have a point there.
"So Conservative Judaism might have been terrific for Shira, but it's social mores resulted in Shira only producing 1 child, and not 2-4."
You wish. I never planned on having more than two kids.
"When you took your son out, it would have been fine. Nobody would treat you like you weren't a serious Jew because you took your son out. There would be no implication that you weren't fulfilling your role by not being in the Minyan."
It wasn't until our son had grown and flown that our synagogue began counting women for a minyan, so that point doesn't apply to us, but might apply to women who raised/are raising/will raise kids in an egalitarian synagogue of any denomination.
"I daven Orthodox, but the triumphalism of Orthodoxy as the future of Judaism would seem more sincere if they EVER exceeded 10% of the Jewish population.
Oh, and despite birth rates, Orthodoxy is treading water, and 74% of Orthodox Jews grew up Orthodox (26% are BTs)... So Orthodoxy isn't growing, it's treading water because of BTs from the much larger movements... please tell me how the decline of Conservative Judaism is good for Orthodoxy?"
In terms of future population projections, maybe none of the North American Jewish denominations come out smelling like a rose.
Anon. said, "Your confusing Conservative Jews, albeit an inherently small number, with members of Conservative shuls. They are not interchangeable."
There are those who say that many of the newer independent minyanim (not to mention the older independent chavurot) are really non-affiliated Conservative kehillot/congregations/communities.
"The decline in shul membership is not a bad thing for Conservative judaism in the long run, but a large number of shuls will no longer be able to justify their existance."
Tell me about it--I'm a member of one of those shuls. :( If we last another five years, I'll be pleasantly surprised. Given the average age of our congregants and the frequency with which the Mal'ach HaMavet/Angel of Death makes his appointed rounds, I joke that we have a bigger minyan "l'mala" (above, on high) than "l'mata" (below, on earth).
"Orthodox Schools spewing venom at non-Orthodox Judaism don't help... disinterested FFB youth become secular or OTD/anti-religion, they don't join Conservative Synagogues... that's a change from 2 generations ago."
More's the pity, Miami Al. Where are they figuring on getting their next batch of BTs from? :)
[Translations:
FFB = frum (Orthodox) from birth
OTD = off the Derech (the Derech being the Orthodox path) = no longer Orthodox
BT = Baal Teshuvah/Baalat Teshuvah = male (Baal) or female (Baalat) "returnee" to Orthodox Judaism, meaning a Jew who wasn't raised Orthodox but became Orthodox as a teen or adult.]
I'm the first (only?) anon. Two things: first, i do agree with one of Al's points. I was raised nothing, joined USY, became conservative (graduated undergrad from JTS)and am now Orthodox. I wouldn't say that I'd have stayed conservo either way, nor would many of my acquaintances who similarly left the movement.
I do disagree. This number is shocking. 27% of all jewish kids are being raised in ortho homes. That number is in part birthrate and in part people in the other movements/unaffiliated opting out. We're a larger percentage of a smaller pie. http://www.volokh.com/2013/11/16/pew-study-27-jewish-children-live-orthodox-homes/ I'm not saying that triumphantly. I think that that number has never been that high. I think it's a combo of birthrate and folks simply no longer identifying as Jewish as many kids of intermarriages may no longer do.
"We're a larger percentage of a smaller pie."
That's a sad state of affairs. :(
I found the 1990 numbers with a quick Google search.
In 1990:
Reform 38%
Conservative 35%
Orthodox 6%
Reconstructionist: 1%
Other (secular, Just Jewish, Traditional) 10%
Misc: 9%
Depending on how various Orthodox Sects are categorized, that's tremendous growth in 23 years.
HOWEVER, regarding excitement for youth...
Back in 1990, when the population was surveyed for the denomination they were raised:
33% Conservative
26% Reform
23% Orthodox
<1% Reconstruction
17% None
So the "lots of Orthodox Children" isn't a new phenomenon. 24 years ago, 23% of American Jews were "raised Orthodox." Today it's 27%.
That's nice growth, but not inevitable dominance.
Al: What age for the youth? Were they out of the house already or still under 18?
These studies are poorly published, with different methodologies, and are therefore not "comparable."
So in 1990, we didn't get real numbers on Jewish youth. We did learn that, in 1990, amongst the Jews identified in the 1990 study, 24% of them "grew up Orthodox."
All we know is that in 1990, 24% (+/- some margin of error) of identified Jews were in their Youth Orthodox.
Whether that means that Orthodoxy has always punched above it's weight in child bearing (in face, in the past it was 4:1, now only 2.7:1), or Orthodoxy just resulted in you were more likely to be found by the NJPS, I have no idea.
Charitable: Orthodoxy is exploding, doing wonderful, and about to explode.
Cynically: Orthodoxy has always married well, reproduced well, and retained poorly.
I also think that cultural changes in Orthodoxy are causing the numbers to be reported better than in the past.
If someone grew up Orthodox and intermarried, historically, that was probably more likely to be reported. Today, because of cultural changes within Orthodoxy, that person is far more likely to report that they weren't "really Orthodox" to begin with, refer to themselves as Conservadox, and not report in the survey as intermarried... despite going to an Orthodox Shul as a youth and likely to Orthodox or Community Day Schools for a number of years.
Conservative Judaism is clearly dying and doing things wrong. Orthodoxy looks to me to be trending slightly upward, Reform seems to be growing rapidly.
Orthodoxy may become the dominant form of American Judaism, but that is hardly inevitable.
But if 23% of Orthodox Jews grew up Conservative, 4% grew up Reform, and 73% grew up Orthodox, Orthodoxy should be terrified of the death of Conservative Judaism, that's a huge chunk of their future members.
"But if 23% of Orthodox Jews grew up Conservative, 4% grew up Reform, and 73% grew up Orthodox, Orthodoxy should be terrified of the death of Conservative Judaism, that's a huge chunk of their future members."
Yep. Said so myself, a few comments back.
I practically caused heart attacks at a multidenominational retreat I was at when I said the following:
"Jewish continuity is not our responsibility. The brit we have with Hashem says that as long as we follow the mitzvot, our continuity is assured. Therefore the only thing we need to do to promote Jewish continuity is to encourage mitzvah observance."
Ahad Ha'am said, "“More than the Jews have kept the Sabbath, the Sabbath has kept the Jews.” I think there's a lot of truth to that. In my opinion, there's a limit to how far a Jew can stray from observance without "losing" Judaism altogether. We have an old friend who was raised in a Secular Yiddishist home, and sent his kids to a day school to learn Hebrew and Jewish observance because he saw with his own eyes that "cultural" Judaism doesn't last. I'm certainly not the most observant Jew, but I think you're right, Larry, that encouraging mitzvah observance would go a long way toward ensuring continuity.
Larry,
I agree... and disagree...
I think that our religious leaders DO have an obligation to look out for Jewish continuity, that's what makes them community leaders. Whether that obligation trickles down to individual members... I don't know that you're right or wrong.
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